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OSCAR PREDICTIONS CONTEST: Ebert predix!

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Let's do the contest thing.

Make your Oscar predictions... on as many categories as you like.

I'll try to come up with a prize for the winner.

I'll be the first to predict that Mystic River will beat out Return of the King for Best Picture, and Clint Eastwood will beat Peter Jackson for Best Director. It's sick and it's wrong, but MY PICKS NEVER WIN, so I'm playing the pessimist once again.

I was right about Chicago. I was right about A Beautiful Mind. I was right about Gladiator. I have a terrible feeling I'm going to be right again.

(Mod: Here is a link to the Oscars 2004 index thread. Please note that it is your predictions in this thread that count for the contest, not the "polls".)


P.S.  I COULD BE WRONG.

 

Takin' 'er easy for all you sinners at lookingcloser.org. Also abiding at Facebook and Twitter.

 

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Nah, I don't think "Mystic River" has the big mo', Jeffrey. But my predictions are always wrong, too!

Here's one you can bank on, though: Diane Keaton wins Best Actress.

That's the first lock of the Oscar season, even before nominations are announced.

Say ... when are nominations going to be announced? They used to do 'em around Valentine's Day, but with the earlier schedule, I expect the nom's will be out within the next two weeks.

So, do I get a prize for my early Keaton prediction? Or do I have to submit an entire list?


"What matters are movies, not awards; experiences, not celebrations; the subjective power of individual critical points of view, not the declamatory compromises of consensus." - Richard Brody, "Godard's Surprise Win Is a Victory for Independent Cinema," The New Yorker

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I never predict before the nominations are announced. I like to wait for someone else to narrow the pool a little bit.

And I can't see how Eastwood could win yet another Oscar when Mystic River clearly was not as good or as career-defining as Unforgiven, for which we was ALREADY recognized as Best Director. But I've been wrong about this sort of thing before.

Christian wrote:

: Here's one you can bank on, though: Diane Keaton wins Best Actress.

True, women who star in popular Jack Nicholson movies do tend to win -- Nicholson has won three Oscars so far, and his female co-stars in all three films (Helen Hunt, As Good As It Gets, 1997; Shirley Maclaine, Terms of Endearment, 1983; and, um, whatsherface from One Flew over the Cuckoo's Nest, 1975) won Oscars for those films, too. Heck, even when Nicholson DOESN'T win an Oscar, his female co-stars sometimes do (cf. Anjelica Huston, Prizzi's Honor, 1985). So while Keaton's win is not a sure bet, it is at least a very good bet.

: Say ... when are nominations going to be announced?

Near the end of January, I believe. Would be nicer if they were announced earlier, though, so I could incorporate this into my monthly film column.


"Sympathy must precede belligerence. First I must understand the other, as it were, from the inside; then I can critique it from the outside. So many people skip right to the latter." -- Steven D. Greydanus
Now blogging at Patheos.com. I can also still be found at Facebook, Twitter and Flickr. See also my film journal.

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OKAY.

THIS IS THE THREAD FOR YOUR OSCAR PREDICTIONS.

(Use the poll-related thread for what you think SHOULD win. But this contest is for what you think WILL win.)

On Oscar Sunday, I'll cut and paste these posts onto a separate page (where people can't edit them after the fact.)

The person with the most correct answers wins

a DVD of "Secondhand Lions."


P.S.  I COULD BE WRONG.

 

Takin' 'er easy for all you sinners at lookingcloser.org. Also abiding at Facebook and Twitter.

 

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On Oscar Sunday, I'll cut and paste these posts onto a separate page (where people can't edit them after the fact.)

You doubt our honesty? :wings:

A foreign movie can't be stupid.

-from the film
Armin

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That DVD is mine. You might as well just put it in the mail, cuz i always win these things.

-s.


In an interstellar burst, I am back to save the Universe.

Filmsweep by Persona. 2013 Film Journal. IlPersona.

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What's the scoring system? Is there a penalty for wrong guesses or just the most correct guesses? Is there a handicapping system? Do we get bonus point if we pick Seabiscuit and it wins? (Not sure the DVD would be worth that happening, but...)


A foreign movie can't be stupid.

-from the film
Armin

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Best Actress: Theron

Best Supporting Actress: Zellweger

Best Actor: Kingsley

Best Supporting Actor: Watanabe

Best Director: Jackson (finally)

Best Picture: Mystic River

Best Doc: Capturing the Friedmans

Adapted Screenplay: Montovani (City of God)

Original Screenplay: Coppola (Lost in Translation)

Animated Feature: Triplets

Cinematagraphy: Master and Commander

Song: Triplets

Score: Elfman (Big Fish)

Art Direction: Master and Commander

Editing: Rezende (City of God)

Visual Effects: Master and Commander

Costume design: Dickson, Taylor for LOTR:ROTK

Makeup: Pirates of the Caribbean

If my guesses come to pass (yeah, right) there will be no big winner. (Except for me getting the DVD)


A foreign movie can't be stupid.

-from the film
Armin

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These are my predictions. (Am I correct in assuming that because Jeffrey is cutting and pasting come Oscar morning, that we are free to change our predictions anytime before then?)

Best Picture

''The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King''

Best Actor

Sean Penn, ''Mystic River''

Best Actress

Charlize Theron, ''Monster''

Best Supporting Actor

Tim Robbins, ''Mystic River''

Best Supporting Actressp

Ren


"A director must live with the fact that his work will be called to judgment by someone who has never seen a film of Murnau's." - François Truffaut

Twitter.
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Reviews and essays at Three Brothers Film.

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Best Picture - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Best Actor - Bill Murray, Lost in Translation

Best Actress - Charlize Theron, Monster

Best Supporting Actor - Tim Robbins, Mystic River

Best Supporting Actress - Ren

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UPDATE:

IN THE EVENT OF A 'TIE,' the person who posted the most correct votes FIRST will win the DVD.

(Am I correct in assuming that because Jeffrey is cutting and pasting come Oscar morning, that we are free to change our predictions anytime before then?)

YES.


P.S.  I COULD BE WRONG.

 

Takin' 'er easy for all you sinners at lookingcloser.org. Also abiding at Facebook and Twitter.

 

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BEST PICTURE:

THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING

DIRECTING:

THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:

Ben Kingsley - HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

Ken Watanabe - THE LAST SAMURAI

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE: Charlize Theron - MONSTER

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

Holly Hunter - THIRTEEN

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:

FINDING NEMO

ART DIRECTION:

THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING

CINEMATOGRAPHY:

MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD

COSTUME DESIGN:

THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

CAPTURING THE FRIEDMANS

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT:

ASYLUM

FILM EDITING:

THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING

]FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

THE BARBARIAN INVASIONS

MAKEUP:

THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING

MUSIC (SCORE):

THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING

MUSIC (SONG):

"Into the West" - THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED):

NIBBLES

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION):

MOST (The Bridge)

SOUND EDITING:

MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD

SOUND MIXING:

THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING

VISUAL EFFECTS:

THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY):

AMERICAN SPLENDOR

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY):

LOST IN TRANSLATION


"Could we ever know each other in the slightest without the arts?"

« Nous connaîtrions-nous seulement un peu nous-mêmes, sans les arts? »

Quoted on Canada's $20 bill; from Gabrielle Roy's novel La montagne secrète. The English translation, The Hidden Mountain, is by Harry L. Binsse.

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UPDATE:  

IN THE EVENT OF A 'TIE,' the person who posted the most correct votes FIRST will win the DVD.

Oh sure just make up the rules as you go along.

Oh well. It won't matter. Once i post i will be miles beyond everyone else: Stef the Prophet takes the Lions home.

-s.


In an interstellar burst, I am back to save the Universe.

Filmsweep by Persona. 2013 Film Journal. IlPersona.

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Best Picture: The Return of the King

Best Animated Feature: Finding Nemo

Best Director: Peter Jackson

Best Actor: Bill Murray, Lost in Translation

Best Actress: Charlize Theron, Monster

Best Supporting Actor: Tim Robbins, Mystic River

Best Supporting Actress: Renee Zelweger, Cold Mountain

Original Screenplay: Lost in Translation

Adapted Screenplay: Return of the King

Art Direction: The Last Samurai

Cinematogrpahy: Cold Mountain

Costumes: Return of the King

Editing: Master and Commander

Make up: Return of the King

Score: Return of the King

Song: Into the West, Return of the King

Sound: Master and Commander

Sound effects editing: Master and Commander

Visual effects: Return of the King

Foreign: The Barbarian Invasions

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Actor in a Leading Role: Sean Penn, Mystic River

Actor in a Supporting Role: Tim Robbins, Mystic River

Actress in a Leading Role: Charlize Theron, Monster

Actress in a Supporting Role: Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain

Animated Feature: Finding Nemo

Art Direction: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World

Cinematogrpahy: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World

Costume Design: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Directing: Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Documentary Feature: Capturing the Friedmans

Documentary Short Subject: Ferry Tales

Film Editing: City of God

Foreign Language Film: Evil

Make-up: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Picture: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Score: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Song: “You Will be My Ain True Love,” Cold Mountain

Short Film (Animated): Destino

Short Film (Live Action): Most (The Bridge)

Sound: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Sound Editing: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World

Visual effects: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Writing (Adapted Screenplay): American Splendor

Writing (Original Screenplay): Lost in Translation


All great art is pared down to the essential.
--Henri Langlois

 

Movies are not barium enemas, you're not supposed to get them over with as quickly as possible.

--James Gray

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Interesting:

"Charlize Theron will win for 'Monster.' The performance is so clearly great, so clearly brave and empathetic and bold, so obviously the front-runner, that there's no purpose in discussing this category as a 'race.' If there is an upset, it will be Diane Keaton, but a lot of people in the audience will feel the academy honored sentiment over artistry if that happens."

--Remember my prediction for Keaton as a sure-thing winner? I'm sticking with it. Ebert clearly thinks Theron has given the year's best performance -- one of the best performances ever -- but I think he's trying to will a win for Theron on Feb. 29. How can he say, without any apparent irony, that if Keaton wins "a lot of people in the audience will feel the academy honored sentiment over artistry if that happens"? OF COURSE the academy goes for sentiment over artistry! It happens time and time and time again. Shouldn't that dictate a prediction, rather than the unwavering belief that one performance is clearly superior to another?

I'll say it again. Ebert is using his ink and influence to push for the win he wants to see. Maybe he'll succeed, but I still doubt it. The academy loves Diane Keaton, and she likely won't be nominated again anytime soon. So she will win. The academy will convince itself that Theron has a bright future, then vote with their hearts.

Theron will win in a few years for a much weaker performance. That's my prediction.


"What matters are movies, not awards; experiences, not celebrations; the subjective power of individual critical points of view, not the declamatory compromises of consensus." - Richard Brody, "Godard's Surprise Win Is a Victory for Independent Cinema," The New Yorker

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Actor in a Leading Role: Bill Murray

Actor in a Supporting Role: Tim Robbins, Mystic River

Actress in a Leading Role: Charlize Theron, Monster

Actress in a Supporting Role: Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain

Animated Feature: Finding Nemo

Art Direction: The Last Samurai

Cinematogrpahy: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World

Costume Design: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Directing: Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Documentary Feature: Fog of War

Documentary Short Subject: Ferry Tales

Film Editing: City of God

Foreign Language Film: Barbarian Invasions

Make-up: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Picture: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Score: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Song:

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Wow. After a fair and fun amount of time making flippant commentary on my odds of winning, the joking around comes off as stale in my mouth, as i hesitantly reach for a coin to toss in choosing between several of the nominees.

Oh well, nothing gained - nothing lost. In many of the categories i'm not even seeing what should have properly been nominated anyway. But i'll tell you this: If The Triplets of Belleville doesn't win for that whack little "French" number of a song, you won't see this boy watching the Oscars in 2005.

Here we go:

Actor in a Leading Role: Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog

Actor in a Supporting Role: Tim Robbins, Mystic River

Actress in a Leading Role: Charlize Theron, Monster

Actress in a Supporting Role: Ren


In an interstellar burst, I am back to save the Universe.

Filmsweep by Persona. 2013 Film Journal. IlPersona.

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CONGRATULATIONS, ANDERS.

16 CORRECT GUESSES.

You beat out... well... several people by one guess. Whew! I might have had to buy extra Secondhand Lions DVDs and sent them out in a four or five-way tie!


P.S.  I COULD BE WRONG.

 

Takin' 'er easy for all you sinners at lookingcloser.org. Also abiding at Facebook and Twitter.

 

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