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Best Picture Noms


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Here is a list of the remaining films to be released this year, barring release date changes (I copied it from another board, hence the kebbie-esque lower case spelling on everything):

11/19

bad education

bridget jones 2: edge of reason

national treasure

spongeBob SquarePants the movie

11/24

alexander

christmas with the kranks

11/26

purple butterfly

12/3

closer

house of flying daggers

I am david

12/8

blade 3 trinity

12/10

dolls

ocean

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I imagine Kinsey will get a best picture nomination. Seems inevitable. Other than that, probably Ray. I don't know about Garden State... a lot of people liked it but I'm not sure it's the Acadamy's thing. Usually those types of films just get screenwriting awards. I haven't seen any of this stuff... the only Oscar potentials I've seen are in the foreign language category. I'm just going off hype.

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I think Dogville counts as this year. It's still my top pick for the year, although Sideways keeps pushing itself forward in my mind. I don't know if Hero is eligible this year - it would be be high on my list.

A foreign movie can't be stupid.

-from the film
Armin

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I think Dogville counts as this year.  It's still my top pick for the year, although Sideways keeps pushing itself forward in my mind.  I don't know if Hero is eligible this year - it would be be high on my list.

Well, seeing as how Hero was nominated for a Best Fireign Film Oscar for 2002, it probably isn't eligible. And Dogville was shown at the New York Film Festival in October 2003. It then got a limited U.S. release in March 2004, but the 2003 showing may disqualify it.

Formerly Baal_T'shuvah

"Everyone has the right to make an ass out of themselves. You just can't let the world judge you too much." - Maude 
Harold and Maude
 

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: Although it's archaic, I think the rules say it has to be screened in Los Angeles

: county in the year of competition, so the NY festival may not count.

It has to be screened a week in Los Angeles County, as I recall, so festivals and one-offs don't count anyway.

Also, Dogville will get no nominations. There's just no way.

Dale

Metalfoot on Emmanuel Shall Come to Thee's Noel: "...this album is...monotony...bland, tripy fare..."

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Here's one gossip columnist's (Roger Friedman's) take on potential "Best Picture" nominees. I post this mainly for his account of "bad buzz" on numerous films discussed here as likely Oscar candidates, or simply well-made films:

-----------------------------------------------------------

Epics Vie for Worst Film

The Academy Awards are going to look a lot like the Independent Spirit Awards this year

"What matters are movies, not awards; experiences, not celebrations; the subjective power of individual critical points of view, not the declamatory compromises of consensus." - Richard Brody, "Godard's Surprise Win Is a Victory for Independent Cinema," The New Yorker

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: 11/19

: bridget jones 2: edge of reason

Actually, this one is already out -- it opened in just 530 theatres last week (and came in fourth at the box office, against films that were playing in thousands of theatres). It goes wide this Friday.

: 12/24

: proof

Apparently this one has been put off until next year. I was assigned to review it, but my editor told me the other day that it wouldn't be opening in December like we had thought.

"Sympathy must precede belligerence. First I must understand the other, as it were, from the inside; then I can critique it from the outside. So many people skip right to the latter." -- Steven D. Greydanus
Now blogging at Patheos.com. I can also still be found at Facebook, Twitter and Flickr. See also my film journal.

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I'll go out on a limb and take a stab at predicting the five nominees (always risky until those wacky Golden Globe folks come out with their list):

Kinsey - almost a sure bet because of the subject matter, hype, and potential conscious or subconscious attempt on Academy members' part to stick it to the perceived resurgence of America's "moral values"

Ray - it probably would have been nominated anyway, but it doesn't hurt that its subject is a recently deceased musical legend

Sideways - Payne's About Schmidt was touted as a 2002 nominee, but didn't make the cut; Academy will make up for it this year

Vera Drake - it's Mike Leigh, it's acclaimed, and it's about a "social issue" many in Hollywood can't resist spotlighting

(wild card spot -- insert guess here) I'll go with The Aviator. There have got to be a lot of Scorsese chums who feel guilty about not voting him the 2002 best director Oscar for Gangs of New York, so if Aviator is even passably good, they'll throw him a best picture nod this year (maybe even the director Oscar).

Unless they don't.

In which case they'll nominate Closer. Or Motorcycle Diaries. Or Finding Neverland. Or Eternal Sunshine.

Now I humbly stand aside and await the egg droppings which shall fall upon my face.

"The most important thing is that people love in the same way. Whether they are monarchists, republicans, or communists, they feel pain in the same way, as well as hatred, jealousy, fear, and fear of death. Whether you are a deeply religious man or an atheist, if you have a toothache, it hurts just the same." - Krzysztof Kieslowski

"...it seems to me that most people I encounter aren't all that interested in the arts. Most of the people who are my age ... appear to be interested in golf, fertilizer, and early retirement schemes.... I will stop caring passionately about music, books, and films on the day that I die, and I'm hoping for Top 100 album polls in the afterlife." - Andy Whitman

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I was thinking that Vera didn't have much of a chance at a best picture nomination, solely because it receipts were only at $1.5 million after its first six weeks. However, comparing its box office to Leigh's other best picture nominee, Secrets & Lies, gives me a bit of hope:

Week in vaguely wide release/S&L BO/VD BO

Week 1/$294,383/$380,432

Week 2/$797,801/$788,198

Week 3/$1,342,409/$1,159,014

Week 4/$1,891,239/$1,478,161

Vera's running a bit less, true, but not so much so to make me entirely unoptimistic. It depends how well it does once it's released even wider, just like with Secrets & Lies (which was at about $6 or $7 million before the Oscar nod).

Dale

Metalfoot on Emmanuel Shall Come to Thee's Noel: "...this album is...monotony...bland, tripy fare..."

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I was thinking that Vera didn't have much of a chance at a best picture nomination, solely because it receipts were only at $1.5 million after its first six weeks.  However, comparing its box office to Leigh's other best picture nominee, Secrets & Lies, gives me a bit of hope:

I wonder how much box-office will factor in this year. '96, the year Secrets & Lies was nominated, was also a "year of the indie" with more artsy, less box-officey movies dominating. Since this year's few crowd-pleasers seem unlikely to be nominated, and coming off last year's sweep for LOTR, I suspect the academy might go for smaller, acclaimed movies like Vera.

"The most important thing is that people love in the same way. Whether they are monarchists, republicans, or communists, they feel pain in the same way, as well as hatred, jealousy, fear, and fear of death. Whether you are a deeply religious man or an atheist, if you have a toothache, it hurts just the same." - Krzysztof Kieslowski

"...it seems to me that most people I encounter aren't all that interested in the arts. Most of the people who are my age ... appear to be interested in golf, fertilizer, and early retirement schemes.... I will stop caring passionately about music, books, and films on the day that I die, and I'm hoping for Top 100 album polls in the afterlife." - Andy Whitman

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I'm not sure box office relates to nominations. The Academy membership is spread out enough that it's not just about what's making money. Often the Academy Award nominations are what really allow some lesser known films to make money.

A foreign movie can't be stupid.

-from the film
Armin

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: I'm not sure box office relates to nominations.

That's true to a degree, but if you're Vera Drake and your BO's only about $1 or $2 million, that probably means there's fewer voters who have seen your film than if it's made the $10 million that I Rode and Rode on My Motorcycle and Not Much Dramatically Interesting Happened to Me Until It Finally Broke Down did.

Anyway, my predictions:

Kinsey (the closest there is to a sure thing: liberal, crowd-pleasing, and "important")

Ray (see above, but less of all of them)

Sideways (amazing per-screen averages for an indie, even after opening wider)

Alexander (see Gladiator; see Stone's record in garnering Oscar nods)

The Passion of the Christ (widely seen, probably even among Oscar voters; those who like the film really like it; last film Gibson directed swept the Oscars)

Dale

Metalfoot on Emmanuel Shall Come to Thee's Noel: "...this album is...monotony...bland, tripy fare..."

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Keep in mind that soon all the ads in the LA Times for "important" films will have the line: AMPAS, DGA, WGA, SAG Members and guest admitted with membership card. The free movie season for guild members will soon be here, that's when those who nominate will be seeing the films. I think Vera Drake will get some good looks then. maybe not enough for best pic, but like you, I think there are ample nomination possibilities that will get Academy Members to the theaters to see it.

A foreign movie can't be stupid.

-from the film
Armin

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I'll agree that Kinsey, Sideways, and Ray will be likely lock-ins for nominations.

After that?

Here's my wildcard list (from likely to longshot)

1. Vera Drake - Seems to be the most likely among the wildcards. Hot button issue + Mike Leigh = Oscar nod.

2. The Aviator - Scorsese's a favorite, and this film looks like epic in scope.

3. Alexander - If it doesn't get drubbed by the critics, it might have a chance.

4. Closer - It's a movie that "demands" ACTING!

5. Motorcycle Diaries - Just looks like an Oscar film.

6. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - My personal favorite for 2004 - since my 2003 pick, LOTR: Return of the King won last year, I suspect my personal favorite won't even get a nod this year.

7. Fahrenheit 9/11 - Might still have a chance.

8. The Passion of the Christ - I don't think many of the voters in the Academy will consider it. If it happens, I'll be surprised.

9. Finding Neverland - It appears to be overrated - at least the trailer did.

Watch it be Closer and Alexander - that way all of the noms will be one word long. (And 3 named for the title character!)

Edited by Clint M
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5. Motorcycle Diaries - Just looks like an Oscar film.

8. The Passion of the Christ - I don't think many of the voters in the Academy will consider it.  If it happens, I'll be surprised.

Yeah, Motorcycle Diaries strikes me that way, too. And Gael Garcia Bernal is kind of the "it boy" this year, so he'll probably get a best actor nod.

I also agree that Passion doesn't stand much chance. It might get some technical nominations, but it seems like Mel G. has fallen too far out of Hollywood's graces to get a pat on the back for this one.

"The most important thing is that people love in the same way. Whether they are monarchists, republicans, or communists, they feel pain in the same way, as well as hatred, jealousy, fear, and fear of death. Whether you are a deeply religious man or an atheist, if you have a toothache, it hurts just the same." - Krzysztof Kieslowski

"...it seems to me that most people I encounter aren't all that interested in the arts. Most of the people who are my age ... appear to be interested in golf, fertilizer, and early retirement schemes.... I will stop caring passionately about music, books, and films on the day that I die, and I'm hoping for Top 100 album polls in the afterlife." - Andy Whitman

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: 6. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - My personal favorite for

: 2004 - since my 2003 pick, LOTR: Return of the King won last year, I

: suspect my personal favorite won't even get a nod this year.

Um. Forget my personal favorite from any given year -- it's been eight long, long, long years since any film from my top-ten list got an Oscar Best Picture nomination. (Secrets & Lies, since you're asking, and I should mention that Traffic was my no. 11 for 2000.)

This year might be a change, as one of the Best Picture possibilities bandied about (Vera) is a lock for my list, and another one (Eternal) is likelier than not (particularly if I have a chance to see it again). Also, I haven't seen oh-so-acclaimed Sideways yet, although Payne's previous films haven't managed a ratio above 2:1 great-to-uuugggghhh, so I'm skeptical.

Dale

Metalfoot on Emmanuel Shall Come to Thee's Noel: "...this album is...monotony...bland, tripy fare..."

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Everyone keeps saying Ray as a lock for a Best Picture nomination. I think it unlikely. I think Jamie Foxx for Best Actor is a lock, but not the film itself. I liked it, but it's pretty uneven, and fact is that the Academy rarely nominates multiple films in the same genre. And for Bio Pics, this year I would put money on Kinsey or Finding Neverland over Ray. Why Neverland? Because of Johnny Depp. He IS Hollywood's "It" actor these days. No debates.

Alexander's chances rely on how strongly recieved it is. Same goes for The Aviator. Likely only one will be nominated. Rare to see two epics (except in 2002, when Two Towers and Gangs were both nodded, but Gangs is debateble as an epic).

I think Sideways is a likely contender to be this year's Lost In Translation, especially after the Academy snubbed Giamatti last year for American Splendor. I think Garden State is a long shot. Again, like Ray, too uneven. Possible "Dark Horse" in the "Indie" category (which while I'm at it I should say these days "Indie" is a pretty relative term when it comes to companies like Fox Searchlight and Sony Picture Classics as "Indie") is Eternal Sunshine. I would love to see it nominated, since it's sitting in my top five as of right now. Likely not going to happen though.

"A director must live with the fact that his work will be called to judgment by someone who has never seen a film of Murnau's." - François Truffaut

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  • 1 month later...
I'll agree that Kinsey, Sideways, and Ray will be likely lock-ins for nominations.

After that?

Here's my wildcard list (from likely to longshot)

1. Vera Drake - Seems to be the most likely among the wildcards.  Hot button issue + Mike Leigh = Oscar nod.

2. The Aviator - Scorsese's a favorite, and this film looks like epic in scope.

3. Alexander - If it doesn't get drubbed by the critics, it might have a chance.

4. Closer - It's a movie that "demands" ACTING!

5. Motorcycle Diaries - Just looks like an Oscar film.

6. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - My personal favorite for 2004 - since my 2003 pick, LOTR: Return of the King won last year, I suspect my personal favorite won't even get a nod this year.

7. Fahrenheit 9/11 - Might still have a chance.

8. The Passion of the Christ - I don't think many of the voters in the Academy will consider it.  If it happens, I'll be surprised.

9. Finding Neverland - It appears to be overrated - at least the trailer did.

Watch it be Closer and Alexander - that way all of the noms will be one word long. (And 3 named for the title character!)

I'd just have to say that I'm eating my own crow at this point.

Since it's two weeks or so till official nominations, here are my predictions for best picture:

1. Finding Neverland

2. Ray

3. The Aviator

4. Sideways

5. Million Dollar Baby

Here's what I'd actually like to see:

1. Finding Neverland

2. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

3. The Passion of the Christ

4. Sideways

5. Either Spider-Man 2, The Incredibles, or Before Sunset

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The columns on Ray seem to be putting it into the same bracket as Monster and Monster's Ball which is that they are good films but what makes them great is a particular performance. And going on these films past experience, I too predict a Best Actor nom. but not one for Best Picture.

Knock that off and replace it with Vera Drake and I think Clint's list is looking very likely.

Phil.

"We live as if the world were as it should be, to show it what it can be." - Angel

"We don't do perms!" - Trevor and Simon

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I'd just have to say that I'm eating my own crow at this point. 

Since it's two weeks or so till official nominations, here are my predictions for best picture:

1. Finding Neverland

2. Ray

3. The Aviator

4. Sideways

5. Million Dollar Baby

I'm eating a little crow, too, since I predicted Kinsey and Ray as two sure-fire nominees. Kinsey has really fallen off the map, and now I wonder if Neeson will even get a Best Actor nomination. I'd pretty much go with Clint's list for best pic.

The columns on Ray seem to be putting it into the same bracket as Monster and Monster's Ball which is that they are good films but what makes them great is a particular performance. And going on these films past experience, I too predict a Best Actor nom. but not one for Best Picture.

Knock that off and replace it with Vera Drake and I think Clint's list is looking very likely.

Phil.

Hmm, could be, but I'm not so sure. The year-end lists I'm reading are a bit schizophrenic about Ray -- some echo this sentiment, others are saying the film is great on its own. Of the five listed above, I agree Ray is the most vulnerable ... I think Vera Drake could be the fifth nominee, but there also seems to be a groundswell of support for Eternal Sunshine, too. And I wonder if Hotel Rwanda could slip in as a surprise nominee now that it's being widely seen. (Humanitarianism is so "in" these days!)

"The most important thing is that people love in the same way. Whether they are monarchists, republicans, or communists, they feel pain in the same way, as well as hatred, jealousy, fear, and fear of death. Whether you are a deeply religious man or an atheist, if you have a toothache, it hurts just the same." - Krzysztof Kieslowski

"...it seems to me that most people I encounter aren't all that interested in the arts. Most of the people who are my age ... appear to be interested in golf, fertilizer, and early retirement schemes.... I will stop caring passionately about music, books, and films on the day that I die, and I'm hoping for Top 100 album polls in the afterlife." - Andy Whitman

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Well, with the surprise wins for Clive Owen and Natalie Portman for Closer last night at the Golden Globes, I wonder now if there's a possibility that it could overtake either Finding Neverland or Ray for an Academy nom. I doubt it, but there's a possibility.

I am going to say that best picture will be a race between The Aviator, Million Dollar Baby, and Sideways.

(1000 posts!)

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