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Peter T Chattaway

Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader

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It's only been out three weekends. From it's second weekend until the end of the third weekend it earned an additional $40 million internationally. It's not as if it will stop earning all over the world this weekend. It has at least two or three very productive weekends ahead. And the Japan earnings could really help boost the international earnings. Also, I didn't say it would earn $300 million. I said it could. Perhaps that is wishful thinking on my part. Caspian earned $278 million internationally. As of December 26th, Dawn Treader had earned $165 million. That's a little over $100 million less. It will sail past the $200 million mark very easily. It might even do that sometime early next week. If Japan is strong then catching Caspian is very much a possibility.

Edited by Phill Lytle

"The greatest meat of all. The meat of friendship and fatherhood."

The Blue Raft - Are you ready to ride?

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Christian wrote:

: I'm not sure if it has major territories yet to open in, or if a film like this has better "legs" typically in international markets than it does domestically.

Oh, fantasy films -- especially those that are based on non-American source material -- generally play quite better overseas than they do in North America. The Harry Potter movies typically make just under $300 million in North America and about double that overseas, for example. The Lord of the Rings films also made just over $300 million in North America and about double that overseas (with The Return of the King passing the billion-dollar mark worldwide). And The Golden Compass made only $70 million in North America but another $300 million (more than quadruple!) overseas.

What I find interesting is how the Narnia films play stronger overseas by different ratios, depending on the film. Lion Witch Wardrobe made about 50% more money overseas than it did in North America ($453.3 million vs. $291.7 million), whereas Prince Caspian made about double overseas what it did in North America ($278 million vs. $141.6 million) and Dawn Treader has already made MORE than double overseas what the film made in North America (as of this writing, $165 million vs. $69.8 million). So the films' drop-off in popularity has been much less steep overseas than it has over here.


"Sympathy must precede belligerence. First I must understand the other, as it were, from the inside; then I can critique it from the outside. So many people skip right to the latter." -- Steven D. Greydanus
Now blogging at Patheos.com. I can also still be found at Facebook, Twitter and Flickr. See also my film journal.

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That's a little over $100 million less. It will sail past the $200 million mark very easily. It might even do that sometime early next week.

I wasn't questioning that really. Getting past $200,000 is a safe bet, I would say. I am just noting getting past $300 million may be far trickier.


"You know...not EVERY story has to be interesting." -Gibby

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I wasn't questioning that really. Getting past $200,000 is a safe bet, I would say. I am just noting getting past $300 million may be far trickier.

Your previous comment made it sound like you thought the film would barely get past the $200 million mark. Sorry if I misunderstood that. My guess would be the film will earn $280+ internationally. Of course that is dependent on how well it performs in Japan and how well it holds up this weekend. It's hard to predict international numbers because they are not updated as often. You can't look at how well the film performed on weekdays and then use those numbers to predict how it will do over the weekend. If the film is seeing the same type of spike in performance internationally as it is domestically this week, then it's weekend gross might be very healthy.


"The greatest meat of all. The meat of friendship and fatherhood."

The Blue Raft - Are you ready to ride?

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Phill Lytle wrote:

: You can't look at how well the film performed on weekdays and then use those numbers to predict how it will do over the weekend.

Especially in a week like this, where we are between holidays and many (most?) people have time off from school and work.


"Sympathy must precede belligerence. First I must understand the other, as it were, from the inside; then I can critique it from the outside. So many people skip right to the latter." -- Steven D. Greydanus
Now blogging at Patheos.com. I can also still be found at Facebook, Twitter and Flickr. See also my film journal.

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That makes for an interesting question, as next week, schools will be back in session... will the film see a much increased drop after this weekend? Has the lack of interference of school given the film an extra boost?

Edited by Nezpop

"You know...not EVERY story has to be interesting." -Gibby

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Phill Lytle wrote:

: You can't look at how well the film performed on weekdays and then use those numbers to predict how it will do over the weekend.

Especially in a week like this, where we are between holidays and many (most?) people have time off from school and work.

True. I was specifically refering to international numbers - they never post a day-by-day account of how much money films are earning overseas. In the domestic market you can usually use the weekday earnings to predict how well a movie is going to do over the weekend. The numbers this week for Dawn Treader indicate that it will have a pretty decent showing this weekend simply due to the Holidays. Next week will go a long way in deciding its fate though. The Holidays are over and it could take a significant plunge.


"The greatest meat of all. The meat of friendship and fatherhood."

The Blue Raft - Are you ready to ride?

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Phill Lytle wrote:

: I was specifically refering to international numbers - they never post a day-by-day account of how much money films are earning overseas.

Ah, right.

: Next week will go a long way in deciding its fate though. The Holidays are over and it could take a significant plunge.

Yeah, it could. Though for what it's worth, there don't seem to be any new family/children's films going into wide release until, uh, Gnomeo & Juliet in mid-February. So it won't face any additional competition, apart from the movies that are already out there, like Yogi Bear, Tangled and Gulliver's Travels -- and it's been doing better than all of those films right now. (Actually, it was doing better than Yogi Bear on the weekend, but it seems to have fallen behind Yogi Bear on Monday and Tuesday. Oh well.)


"Sympathy must precede belligerence. First I must understand the other, as it were, from the inside; then I can critique it from the outside. So many people skip right to the latter." -- Steven D. Greydanus
Now blogging at Patheos.com. I can also still be found at Facebook, Twitter and Flickr. See also my film journal.

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That makes for an interesting question, as next week, schools will be back in session... will the film see a much increased drop after this weekend? Has the lack of interference of school given the film an extra boost?

To your second question, definitely yes. According to box-office analysis websites, most films get a boost around Christmas & New Year's -- it's an annual occurrence. It's the "rising tide that lifts all boats", as one site put it.


Edward Curtis

Morgantown, WV

Hold the physician in honor, for he is essential to you, and God it was who created his profession. Sirach 38:1 NAB

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I saw it yesterday, and I have to say I enjoyed it, compared to Prince Caspian. I think the lack of a full scale war (as we had in the first two films) and the message of "War is Bad!" that the filmmakers seemed obliged to hammer home helped a lot. Despite Edmund's weakness and occasional bouts of jealousy, everyone (aside from Eustace but that's obviously different) seems in a much better mood and it left me in a better one as well. I suspect if I had read the book again more recently, I'd have caught more of the changes and perhaps been more annoyed, but in general I guess I'm just more generous with things like adding the mists or having Eustace as a dragon longer.

I can say I enjoyed it more than Harry Potter and TDH Part 1 (though since that's only the first part it may be unfair to judge it).

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Jared @ Moviegoings:

The mist is pure evil, and it is spreading. The heroes must defeat it by reuniting the seven swords given by Aslan to the Telmarines, and placing them on Aslan’s Table on Ramandu’s island, or else the world will be covered in darkness.

The gaping problem with this is that we know (even from the last film) that the Telmarines did not believe in Aslan or talking animals or any of Narnia’s “special” qualities, thus making it difficult to understand how or why Aslan would have given them magical swords. . . .

Eustace, of course, spends much of the film as a dragon because of his greed and bad temper. However, the film seems a bit confused about whether the transformation reflects something good about Eustace, or something bad. ”Extraordinary things,” Reepicheep tells him, “only happen to extraordinary people.” Oops. . . .

The entire climax begs the question of why, if he could simply collect all of his magical swords by magic and magically place them where they needed to be anyway, Aslan insisted they do everything the hard way up to that point. This sort of obvious cheating drains the climax of tension and the victory of any real sense of accomplishment. I cannot stress enough the complete and utter arbitrariness of this quest, lacking even internal logic or expositional support.

Consider the quest to destroy the One Ring in Tolkien, a task driven by the villain’s evil and his growing power, the successful completion of which would lead to victory for the heroes for clearly explained reasons. Consider even Aslan’s sacrifice in the first book/film, necessitated by the clearly-explained Deep Magic and made successful by the clearly-explained Deeper Magic. Obviously, in the latter example, as in all of the Chronicles, such events are invested with a great deal of symbolic meaning. What, then, is the symbolic significance of collecting seven magic swords and laying them on a table in order to defeat evil water vapor? . . .

Finally, Aslan’s underwhelming screen presence in the films seems to have infected even the characters, who (like us) grow steadily less impressed at each of his appearances. As Reepicheep, Edmund, Lucy, Eustace and Caspian walk along the final beach towards the large wave separating them from Aslan’s Country, the lion himself appears behind them. Eustace notices him first, and says something, whereupon they all turn and cock their heads to the side as though expressing mild interest.

Even Lucy can’t muster up enough enthusiasm to wave to him, let alone run up and give him the hug that no physical force would have been able to prevent the book character from delivering. The haphazard intrusions by Aslan in this film are lackluster enough, but the utterly lifeless reaction his physical presence inspires renders it impossible to care about him at all. . . .


"Sympathy must precede belligerence. First I must understand the other, as it were, from the inside; then I can critique it from the outside. So many people skip right to the latter." -- Steven D. Greydanus
Now blogging at Patheos.com. I can also still be found at Facebook, Twitter and Flickr. See also my film journal.

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What I find interesting is how the Narnia films play stronger overseas by different ratios, depending on the film. Lion Witch Wardrobe made about 50% more money overseas than it did in North America ($453.3 million vs. $291.7 million), whereas Prince Caspian made about double overseas what it did in North America ($278 million vs. $141.6 million) and Dawn Treader has already made MORE than double overseas what the film made in North America (as of this writing, $165 million vs. $69.8 million). So the films' drop-off in popularity has been much less steep overseas than it has over here.

Just a quick update here:

The Voyage of the Dawn Treader just inched past the $100 million mark in North America, which is certainly better than I, for one, had expected a month ago; apparently this film had more staying power -- better "legs" -- than some other high-profile fantasy films that opened to the same numbers in mid-December.

Overseas, meanwhile, the film has grossed $257.6 million, which is almost as much as Prince Caspian made overseas -- and this means a whopping 71.9% of the film's worldwide revenue has come from outside of North America.

I don't know how much more the film can expect to earn, at this point, but when you take into account the fact that this film had a considerably smaller budget than Caspian (and maybe even than Wardrobe?), the odds of the franchise getting another extension don't seem quite so unlikely any more.


"Sympathy must precede belligerence. First I must understand the other, as it were, from the inside; then I can critique it from the outside. So many people skip right to the latter." -- Steven D. Greydanus
Now blogging at Patheos.com. I can also still be found at Facebook, Twitter and Flickr. See also my film journal.

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I'm not all that surprised. Virtually all of the buzz I have heard about this film from my family and friends has been positive. The people that I know generally LIKED this movie, and told their friends so. I haven't heard anyone saying that the movie was perfect, by any means, but they come away saying that it was a lot of fun, that its portrayal of Eustace, and of Reepicheep, won them over, and even (gulp!) that they liked the 3D component of it. I haven't seen it in 3D, so I can't speak to that personally. But as to the rest, it doesn't surprise me.


In case you were wondering, my name is spelled "Denes House," but it's pronounced "Throatwobbler Mangrove."

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The Voyage of the Dawn Treader just inched past the $100 million mark in North America, which is certainly better than I, for one, had expected a month ago; apparently this film had more staying power -- better "legs" -- than some other high-profile fantasy films that opened to the same numbers in mid-December.

Overseas, meanwhile, the film has grossed $257.6 million, which is almost as much as Prince Caspian made overseas -- and this means a whopping 71.9% of the film's worldwide revenue has come from outside of North America.

I don't know how much more the film can expect to earn, at this point, but when you take into account the fact that this film had a considerably smaller budget than Caspian (and maybe even than Wardrobe?), the odds of the franchise getting another extension don't seem quite so unlikely any more.

Wardrobe had a $180 million budget. So yes, Dawn Treader had a smaller budget - $25 million less. Dawn Treader has yet to open in Japan, and based on how it is playing in that area, I have a feeling it will do very well there. Perhaps it will be able to push the international total beyond $300 million. Like I wrote a few weeks ago, $400 million is not out of the question at all, and if it reaches that number then I think Fox would likely greenlight The Silver Chair. (Or whatever film they decide to do next.)


"The greatest meat of all. The meat of friendship and fatherhood."

The Blue Raft - Are you ready to ride?

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CrimsonLine wrote:

: . . . even (gulp!) that they liked the 3D component of it.

Yikes. But yes, mustn't forget the "3D bump", when analyzing grosses. :)

Phill Lytle wrote:

: Dawn Treader has yet to open in Japan . . .

Really? Interesting. Apparently Prince Caspian grossed $27.7 million in Japan, so if Dawn Treader can do better than two-thirds of that, it should manage to close the gap between this and the previous Narnia film overseas, at least.


"Sympathy must precede belligerence. First I must understand the other, as it were, from the inside; then I can critique it from the outside. So many people skip right to the latter." -- Steven D. Greydanus
Now blogging at Patheos.com. I can also still be found at Facebook, Twitter and Flickr. See also my film journal.

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Really? Interesting. Apparently Prince Caspian grossed $27.7 million in Japan, so if Dawn Treader can do better than two-thirds of that, it should manage to close the gap between this and the previous Narnia film overseas, at least.

Really. It is set to open sometime in February. Not sure about the date.


"The greatest meat of all. The meat of friendship and fatherhood."

The Blue Raft - Are you ready to ride?

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DVD and Blu-Ray coming April 8.

- - -

Box Office Update: Fox’s Dawn Treader and Gulliver’s Travels Recoup Overseas

The disconnect between foreign and domestic box office is highlighted by robust overseas holiday business on two stateside underperformers, Fox/Walden Media’s The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of Dawn Treader (pictured) and Fox’s Gulliver’s Travels.

Dawn Treader quietly sailed past $100 million at the domestic box office on Jan. 23rd—a remarkable feat considering that many pronounced the threequel dead in the water after its $24.3 million bow, an all-time low for the franchise. But that’s not all: Dawn Treader sped past Disney’s Tron: Legacy at the global B.O., $373 million vs. $363 million, and is poised to whip the foreign take of the previous Narnia chapter, Prince Caspian ($278 million). . . .

It might have appeared that Dawn Treader was just another 3-D title (repping 58% of its U.S. total) in a crowded PG season, but moviegoers told their friends otherwise. To date, Dawn Treader has made $102 million at the domestic B.O. – a number that Warner Bros.’ pop toon Yogi Bear ($93 million) has yet to hit. Such good news has spurred talks between Fox and Walden Media about bringing the fourth C.S. Lewis book The Silver Chair to the screen. . . .

Rather than capitalize on the Narnia brand in a universal campaign, Fox International tailored a country-by-country secular promotion, unlike the U.S.‘s Christian focus. Fox tapped the Chirstian niche where appropriate, hosting screenings for Evangelical Christians in South Africa and conducted grassroots efforts in Latin America. “Voyage” became the central message in Dawn Treader’s ads; a character action collage à la Lord of the Rings repped the key outdoor/print images in many territories over Aslan the Lion, which was the signature U.S. hook. . . .

Anne Thompson, February 4


"Sympathy must precede belligerence. First I must understand the other, as it were, from the inside; then I can critique it from the outside. So many people skip right to the latter." -- Steven D. Greydanus
Now blogging at Patheos.com. I can also still be found at Facebook, Twitter and Flickr. See also my film journal.

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FWIW, my wife attended a 2:30 Presidents Day matinee show -- one of three scheduled matinees at the discount theater, which isn't showing this film after 6 p.m. -- and said the theater was packed. She liked the film very much.

Edited by Christian

"What matters are movies, not awards; experiences, not celebrations; the subjective power of individual critical points of view, not the declamatory compromises of consensus." - Richard Brody, "Godard's Surprise Win Is a Victory for Independent Cinema," The New Yorker

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Dawn Treader has yet to open in Japan, and based on how it is playing in that area, I have a feeling it will do very well there. Perhaps it will be able to push the international total beyond $300 million.

Well, apparently the film opened in Japan this past weekend, and it had a bigger opening there than Prince Caspian did. Plus, while Prince Caspian topped out at $278 million overseas, Dawn Treader is already somewhere over $280 million. (With the help of 3D surcharges, mind. But still.)


"Sympathy must precede belligerence. First I must understand the other, as it were, from the inside; then I can critique it from the outside. So many people skip right to the latter." -- Steven D. Greydanus
Now blogging at Patheos.com. I can also still be found at Facebook, Twitter and Flickr. See also my film journal.

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The Hollywood Reporter:

20th Century Fox reported that The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader -- which had been having a triumphant Japan run at the conclusion of a lengthy overseas campaign – managed to draw $1.49 million from 548 locations, with most of the business coming from southern Japan. Treader has pulled nearly $19 million out of Japan since opening there on Feb. 25. The film’s overseas cume stands at $298 million.


"Sympathy must precede belligerence. First I must understand the other, as it were, from the inside; then I can critique it from the outside. So many people skip right to the latter." -- Steven D. Greydanus
Now blogging at Patheos.com. I can also still be found at Facebook, Twitter and Flickr. See also my film journal.

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That puts it over $400 million worldwide. I believe I made that prediction some time back:

It has yet to open in Japan, where Caspian earned $27 million. Other films that had similar runs, such as The Golden Compass and Eragon, earned $33 million and $15 million respectively. I would wager that Dawn Treader will be more in line with The Golden Compass in that country. I'm sure it has a few smaller markets to open in as well. The film could pull in around $300 million internationally, if not a bit more when all is said and done.

Domestically, it is having a pretty strong week - doing better business than it did on either it's first or second weekends. I wouldn't be suprised if it actually stayed even with last weekend's gross for this weekend with the New Year holiday. If it does, then $100 million in the domestic market is not out of the question.

Yes, I am patting myself on the back. :D


"The greatest meat of all. The meat of friendship and fatherhood."

The Blue Raft - Are you ready to ride?

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Phill Lytle wrote:

: That puts it over $400 million worldwide. I believe I made that prediction some time back . . .

Think it will beat Prince Caspian, which topped out at $419.7 million worldwide? :)


"Sympathy must precede belligerence. First I must understand the other, as it were, from the inside; then I can critique it from the outside. So many people skip right to the latter." -- Steven D. Greydanus
Now blogging at Patheos.com. I can also still be found at Facebook, Twitter and Flickr. See also my film journal.

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DVD and Blu-Ray coming April 8.

AOL Kids has a one-minute preview of an animated "Untold Adventures" short which, if I'm not mistaken, is being included on one or both of these discs.


"Sympathy must precede belligerence. First I must understand the other, as it were, from the inside; then I can critique it from the outside. So many people skip right to the latter." -- Steven D. Greydanus
Now blogging at Patheos.com. I can also still be found at Facebook, Twitter and Flickr. See also my film journal.

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